Retaliation with notice. What might be the consequences of Tehran’s attack on US positions in Iraq? An analysis in questions and answers.

As a hit by the Iranian missiles in the neighboring country of Iraq, were in Tehran, not only the military planners awake, but also the diplomats. On the air base Al-Asad, West of Baghdad, and on to a base in Erbil, in the North of the country, went in the night to Wednesday In a 15-storeys – a retaliatory strike against the, there is US troops after the assassination of the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, last week.

Shortly after the attack, Iran’s reported foreign Minister Javad Zarif to speak: Iran and the United States is even now, was his message. Tehran clearly wanted to preserve with a spectacular action against the United States in the face, without risking a war with the super power. The question now is whether Donald Trump dispenses with a counter-attack .

Remained open, first, whether the death of 176 people criminal crash of a Ukrainian transport at the city of Tehran with the Iranian-American confrontation was.

To assess How are Iran’s attacks ?

Washington’s first reported no American soldiers were killed or injured. US military have long observed Iranian launchers by satellite and were able to send their troops in a timely manner in shelters. Also, Iraqi soldiers at the vertices were not damage as Baghdad; the Director for had been informed of Tehran shortly before the attacks .

Zarif underlined that the Islamic Republic wants to do nothing more ,

open atone. The appropriate measures for self-defense were completed, wrote the chief diplomat on Twitter. «We do not want an escalation or war.» Iran will defend himself however, if he was going to be attacked .

Unlike the Sarif pc, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the hard-liners. Fits the revolution leader presented the missile attacks as a humiliation for the Americans to do. The United States had received a «slap in the face,» he said. To the Americans out of the Middle East, not a single military action but .

The following state television reported in the 80’s «American terrorists» were also killed, furthermore the Iranian missiles would be modern, S-war device set as the helicopter is out of action. The report was apparently intended primarily as a propaganda message for the domestic audience, because there was no evidence that the United States suffered actually so heavy losses .

Experts values the approach of the Iranians as an attempt of de-escalation. The rocket attacks were meant to be now, especially as a symbolic retribution, and less as an attempt to harm. Tehran’s offer to Trump, in a sense, a «highway exit» to the Conflict open to defuse, comments Tobias Schneider, of the think-tank GPPI in Berlin on Twitter.

What options are open to respond to Trump to ?

«All is well!» So trump was points first reaction to the inventory of the damage to the military base. Prior to that, he had gathered with his National security Cabinet in the Situation Room of the White house to discuss the attacks and the possible answers. For a while it was called on Tuesday evening (local time) that Trump would turn from the Oval Office, out to his people .

But the President had finally tweeted instead, and then announced a response for the next Morning. Until then, the reading was also in Washington, that the nightly attacks from the point of view of the regime had to be in Tehran, so this could save face. But they weren’t as bad as the USA would now need to escalate themselves further. The abduction of so far, nothing is about American victims, even if Iran claims other .

Also, it said on Wednesday that Tehran in his attacks on the two bases, apparently with the intention of not to the most popular places to specifically have. In the direction of the ca for me, increasingly convinced that Tehran had merely want a message have send, reported the US channel CNN.

It is now important, whether or not it was actually in the announced retaliation, or whether more will follow, possibly from the militias, the fits of the Iran supports. US Secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, had declared on Tuesday russkaja, that the President «would react in a similar way as in the last week,» should meet the Iranians again with a «bad choice» .

With voltage was now expected, whether at the Trump answered the question of why Washington sends to once again thousands of soldiers in the Middle East. To be more precise: What is the goal of American foreign policy in this Region?

Wants to claimed Trump, how he, the abduction of always been, the world-wide American involvement shut down, «endless» wars stop, and soldiers bring home? Or he wants to start new wars? Not only is the American Public is waiting for answers.

How dangerous Iran’s are rockets?

Missiles are the main weapons of the Iranians, who have due to the Western sanctions, no modern air force. The maintenance options are here few years, the Material, the limited, and often outdated. The operational readiness of the combat aircraft is generally regarded as bad. Why is the story of the Islamic Republic intensified on his missile program. Iran has several Hundred Short – and medium-range missiles at American bases anywhere in the Middle East and U.S. allies as Israel and Saudi-Arabia can meet .

With the attacks in the night, Iran has remained at the lower threshold of its possibilities, said Advisor to the leader of the revolution Khamenei as the state-run television. A hundred more targets for Iranian attacks were as a precautionary measure, been selected .

Iran’s armed forces have a minister for european Million by the men at arms, including about 125,000 soldiers of the revolutionary guards, to defend the elite unit of the Islamic Republic. One of the military Strengths of the Garden what a fleet of heavily armed speed boats, and the U-boats, which are used for the disruption of tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf or attacks on U.S. warships could.

Iraq is now the battlefield between the USA and Iran?

Itself if Iranians and Americans attacks upon the missile, the spiral of violence and counter-violence can stop, this is likely just a pause for breath and its. Your Conflict, you would not have thus russkaja long ago. Trump wants the the Iran, the economic sanctions open wide concessions in the nuclear issue and open at the end of the aggressive policy in the Middle East force.

By contrast, Tehran seeks the withdrawal of CSR from the Region and attends to the Sunni leadership of Saudi Arabia and Israel in the crosshairs.

In General Ismail Qaani, successor Soleimanis as chief of the foreign countries, the Iranian revolutionary guards, troops probably come will continue to rely on Iranian allies as the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen or the Shia militias in Iraq to achieve these goals .

Iraq is the most likely field of battle, because the roughly 5,000 American soldiers are facing in the in the Land of the some 150,000 pro-Iranian militiamen. Iraq’s directing is too weak to prevent this confrontation. Baghdad needs the for U.S. troops as a shield against a Comeback of the «Islamic state». In addition, Baghdad received in the past few years, billions of dollars in American financial aid.

The influence of Iran, after the fall of Saddam Hussein, however, is grown so strong that Tehran plays a major role in the formation of the government in Baghdad. General Soleimani switched and presided in Iraq as Iran’s messenger. According to media reports, he led internal meetings of the Iraqi security authorities on the presidency and gave the hard line in the brutal suppression of the protests against the Iraqi Director hf – hundreds of people were killed.

The demonstrations of the past weeks and months, directed against corruption, nepotism, poverty and the high unemployment of many Iraqis – but people complain more and more about the great influence of Iran, is as a protection of the Shia power .

Especially Sunnis feel sidelined and harassed. Should peel off in the United States its soldiers from Iraq, should Iraq’s sectarian, political and social cleavage deepen again. These could rip the state in the end .

Exactly this constellation could help the «Islamic state» to a return. After the end of the «Caliphate» are gone, many of the jihadists in the underground and always have committed back attacks, especially in Iraq. The-death-of-DINING-chief-Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi – an elite unit of the U.S. army had him liquidated by the end of October – has not changed anything. On The Contrary,.

The «Islamic state» benefited from the Chaos in the Region, to take advantage of the resentment of many Sunnis for his purposes, to win followers for the «Holy war». This benefit IS also likely that the military prosecution pressure decreases may .

More on the topic of.

Iran’s air strikes in Iraq As the Trump to be the face can be true .

For two reasons, which are interrelated. For one thing, the USA killed with’s revolutionary guard corps, a fit the most powerful enemies of the «Islamic state». The Iranian General was taking the lead on it, to expel the jihadists from Iraq and Syria. And now, it is not excluded that the United States withdraw its troops from Iraq. The would mean: One less enemy for the IC.